The whole trend, on one chart
Every lesson in the course shows up in this one stock: a leader found while the market was still weak, a long Stage 2, a breakout on heavy volume along the way, a top that gave its warnings before the worst of the damage, and a new cycle after it.
1 · Found while the market was weak (late 2022 to early 2023)
Nvidia spent most of 2022 in Stage 4, like most of the market (case study: 2021 and 2022). From its October low it rose about 80% by the end of January 2023, while the S&P 500 rose about 14%.
In the last week of January it moved into Stage 2. At that point the S&P 500 was still about 15% below its record, and fewer than half of US stocks were in Stage 2. A stock that turns up ahead of the market like this is the first reason to put it on a watchlist (lesson 5).
2 · The long advance (2023–2024)
A Stage 2 trend is not a straight line. Nvidia paused several times, once in the autumn of 2023 long enough to be called Stage 3, and again in September 2024, when it dipped just under its rising 30-week line for a single week before climbing to new highs: the false alarm from lesson 7. Each time the line kept rising and the pullbacks held. The method's job in these months was mostly to do nothing: stay with the trend, and raise the stop under each new higher low.
In the week of May 22, 2023, it jumped 24% in a day after the company raised its sales outlook, extending its breakout from the range of the previous two months, on nearly twice its normal weekly volume. Ten months later it was about two and a half times that week's close. A textbook continuation breakout (lesson 6).
From January 2023 to November 2024, Nvidia rose about sevenfold. The S&P 500 rose about 47%.
3 · The top (late 2024 to early 2025)
The top came with the Stage 3 signs from lesson 7: from November to January the price stopped making progress, and the 30-week line, which had risen for two years, flattened. The first weekly close below a flat line came at the end of January 2025, about 20% below the high.
Notice the date. That week, the S&P 500 was within 2% of its record, and it set a new one three weeks later. Nvidia's trend was stalling while the index was still climbing: leaders often top before the index does, one reason breadth narrows before a fall (lesson 3).
Selling on that close gave back about a fifth of the peak. Holding on through Stage 4 gave back about 37%.
4 · A new cycle (2025)
Stage 4 ended the way it always does: not because the stock had fallen enough, but because the selling ran out. Nvidia based through May and June 2025 and was back in Stage 2 by late June, at a new high, a new cycle starting from a higher base than the last one.
- Lesson 5: found by relative strength while the market was still weak.
- Lessons 1 and 2: Stage 2, price above a rising 30-week line.
- Lesson 6: added on a breakout with heavy volume.
- Lesson 7: stop raised under higher lows; out on the close below a flattening line.
- Lesson 3: the leader stalled before the index topped.
US stocks ranked by relative strength, with their stage beside each, where the next leader would show up first.
Questions people ask
How much did Nvidia stock rise in 2023 and 2024?
About sevenfold on split-adjusted prices: from around $20 when it entered Stage 2 in January 2023 to about $147 in November 2024. The S&P 500 rose about 47% over the same stretch.
When did Nvidia's uptrend end?
Its highest closes came between November 2024 and early January 2025. It closed below a flattening 30-week line in the last week of January 2025, about 20% below the high, entered Stage 4 in March, and bottomed in early April, about 37% below the high. By late June 2025 it was back in Stage 2 at a new high.