The official figures behind the market's backdrop: CPI and PCE inflation, the Fed's target range, jobs and unemployment, GDP growth and Treasury yields. Updated every evening from the government's own releases.
Consumer price inflation on a year earlier, by the CPI (all items) and by core PCE, which leaves out food and energy and is the measure the Federal Reserve targets. The step line is the top of the Fed's target range for the federal funds rate. With the target's upper bound at 4.00% and core PCE inflation at 3.1% in September 2026, the policy rate sits 0.88 points above inflation.
Jobs added each month (thousands)Oct 2023 – Sep 2026
The monthly change in nonfarm payrolls from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' jobs report. The latest two months are revised in each of the next two reports, so the newest bars can move.
Unemployment rateJan 2021 – Sep 2026
The share of the labor force out of work and looking for it (U-3), seasonally adjusted.
GDP growth by quarterQ1 2022 – Q3 2026
Real GDP growth on the quarter before, expressed as an annual rate, as the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports it. Each quarter is estimated three times, a month apart, and the latest estimate is shown.
Treasury yieldsJan 2020 – Oct 2026
10-year2-year
Constant-maturity Treasury yields from the Federal Reserve's H.15 release, each week's last close.
The yield curve: 10-year minus 2-yearJan 2020 – Oct 2026
Below zero, the curve is inverted: the 2-year yields more than the 10-year, a sign that bond markets expect rates to fall. Long inversions have often come before US recessions, though not on any fixed timetable.
Reading it with the market
Macro data moves slowly, and prices often adjust before a release. Use these figures as background to the market timing read. Rate moves tend to reach banks, homebuilders, utilities and real estate first, and sectors by stage shows where those groups stand today.
When the figures change
The page checks for new figures every evening, so a release shows the same day it is published. Revisions replace the earlier figure: payrolls and GDP are revised for months after their first print.
US macro: quick answers
What is the US inflation rate now?
US consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year to September 2026, by the CPI, up 0.4 percentage points from August. Core CPI, which leaves out food and energy, rose 2.6%. Core PCE inflation, the gauge the Federal Reserve watches most, was 3.1% in September 2026. The Fed's goal is 2%.
What is the Fed funds rate today?
The Federal Reserve's target range for the federal funds rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. Its last change, a rise of 25 basis points, took effect on Sep 17, 2026.
What is the US unemployment rate?
4.2% in September 2026. Nonfarm payrolls changed by +29,000 jobs that month.
What is US GDP growth?
Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in Q3 2026, on the latest estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The quarter before, it was 2.2%.
What is the 10-year Treasury yield?
4.98% at the close on Oct 29, 2026, with the 2-year at 4.61%.
Is the yield curve inverted?
No. On Oct 30, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yielded 0.38 percentage points more than the 2-year. The curve was last inverted in August 2024.
End-of-day data for common stocks and ADRs on the NYSE, Nasdaq and NYSE American, computed after each US close and dated to the trading session.
Sources: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, payrolls, unemployment), the Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE inflation, GDP), the Census Bureau (retail sales), the Department of Labor (jobless claims) and the Federal Reserve (the target range, industrial production, Treasury yields), read through FRED at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Latest periods: CPI Sep 2026, jobs Sep 2026, GDP Q3 2026.